Survey- and Text-Based Economic Indicators

The third module of this book emphasizes the importance of subjective information captured through survey and text-based economic indicators. Traditional economic analysis often relies on objective measurements such as sales and prices. However, subjective information also plays an important role. The perceptions, expectations, and opinions of individuals, commonly collected from surveys and text-based data, guides people’s decision-making processes. These decisions, in turn, dictate consumption, saving, and investment behaviors, thereby influencing economic performance. Consequently, such subjective data sources emerge as key indicators of both current economic activity and future trends. This module familiarizes readers with these unique data sources and provides them with the necessary tools and insights for effective analysis and interpretation.

Module Overview

This module consists of five chapters:

  • Chapter 19: “Why Subjective Information Matters” explores the significant role subjective information plays in economics, arguing that economics is not merely an analysis of exogenous processes, but involves individuals making decisions based on subjective information, which subsequently impacts economic performance.
  • Chapter 20: “Michigan Consumer Survey” elaborates on the consumer survey conducted by the University of Michigan and illustrates how this survey can generate meaningful economic indicators.
  • Chapter 21: “Real-Time and Forecaster Data” covers how back-, now-, and forecasts can offer insights into decision-making processes and the creation of potent indicators. This chapter introduces resources such as Philadelphia Fed’s real-time data, Survey of Professional Forecasters, and Tealbook data.
  • Chapter 22: “Text-Based Economic Indicators” introduces key text-based economic indicators, derived from word counts in newspapers, social media sites, and Google searches.
  • Chapter 23: “Data Report on Survey- and Text-Based Economic Indicators” provides an assessment that tests the skills and knowledge acquired throughout the module, focusing on a data report on survey- and text-based economic indicators of your choice.

In addition to the chapters, the following DataCamp courses complement the content in this module:

Refer to Chapter 8 for tips on how to optimize your learning experience from these DataCamp courses.

Learning Objectives

Upon completing Module III, you should be able to:

  1. Understand the importance of subjective information in economics and its impact on economic performance.
  2. Recognize the purpose and utility of survey-based economic indicators, specifically using the example of the Michigan Consumer Survey.
  3. Analyze real-time and forecaster data to construct meaningful economic indicators and to understand economic decision-making processes.
  4. Identify and utilize text-based economic indicators, derived from word count analyses of newspapers, social media sites, and Google searches.
  5. Navigate and utilize the ggplot2 and dplyr libraries in R to manipulate and visualize data effectively, with additional skills in text mining if the optional DataCamp skill track on Text Mining with R is taken.
  6. Apply the skills learned in this module to create a comprehensive data report on survey- and text-based economic indicators.

Learning Activities & Assessments for Module III

Throughout this module, you will engage in the following activities:

  1. Reading Material: Absorb and comprehend the content of the five chapters in Module III, providing you with a firm grasp of the importance of subjective information in economics, and how survey- and text-based indicators can provide meaningful insights.
  2. DataCamp Courses: Complete the DataCamp courses Introduction to Data Visualization with ggplot2 and Joining Data with dplyr to learn how to visualize and merge data effectively. The optional courses, Intermediate Data Visualization with ggplot2 and Skill Track: Text Mining with R, can further enhance your skills in data visualization and text mining.
  3. Data Report: Create a data report on survey- and text-based economic indicators of your choice using R and R Markdown.

Your progress will be evaluated based on:

  1. DataCamp Course Completion: Completion of the designated DataCamp courses, specifically Introduction to Data Visualization with ggplot2 and Joining Data with dplyr, forms a key part of your assessment.
  2. Data Report on Survey- and Text-Based Economic Indicators: Craft a data report on survey- and text-based economic indicators of your choice using R Markdown. This report will serve as a practical demonstration of your grasp of R, RStudio, R Markdown, and the survey- and text-based indicators. The report should exhibit your ability to analyze and interpret survey- and text-based data, and the quality of your report will form a significant part of your module assessment. Refer to Chapter 23 for guidelines on this task.

Recall that comprehending the intricacies of survey- and text-based economic indicators is a slow process. Make sure to immerse yourself fully in each concept before progressing to the next. Never hesitate to ask for help if you face any challenges during your learning process. Good luck with your exploration of survey- and text-based economic indicators!